Author Topic: What are your future presidential predictions?  (Read 2158 times)

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Offline dpareja

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #90 on: February 26, 2019, 11:13:15 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EzPkqJqp9M

Each member of Congress has to decide how much staff they hire and what sort of remuneration (if any) said staff will be paid.

Breaking with the usual practice, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez decided that her entry-level staff would all be paid a living wage--around $52,000 (DC-area costs of living being higher than many other places). However, due to budget constraints, this means that she can only afford to pay her chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, around $80,000.

The general going salary for a chief of staff for a member of the House is around $150,000.

One assumes that, if Mr. Chakrabarti were miffed about being paid half as much as his counterparts, he would quit. Last I heard, he hasn't.

I should note that Mr. Chakrabarti worked on Sen. Sanders' 2015-16 Presidential campaign, and later helped co-found and run Justice Democrats, the group that discovered and recruited Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, for free.

To my knowledge, no actual laws are being broken here.

And FOX News thinks it's an outrage that Mr. Chakrabarti is willing to work as a Congressional chief of staff for $80,000 and that entry-level staff would get $52,000--"socialism and communism" according to one host.

How about capitalism: Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and Mr. Chakrabarti have agreed upon a salary each considers fair for him to receive as her chief of staff (I imagine this is not the only position available to him), and meanwhile she can offer prospective entry-level staffers a substantially higher salary than they would get with pretty much anyone else in Congress, thus likely providing her a much more talented, motivated staff than anyone else in Congress.

I have to wonder if they secretly think she'd be easy to beat in a higher-level campaign (though I doubt she'd lose in New York if she ran for Senate, but then it'd take a lot for any Democrat to lose in New York these days--Anthony Weiner probably could've--so probably President) and are making stupid attacks against her on purpose to prop her up.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

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Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline ironbite

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #91 on: February 27, 2019, 03:44:48 pm »
Because they have absolutely no idea how to handle her.  She's a typical New Yorker who puts herself out there and backs up everything she's saying.  They can't handle that.  She's, for want of a better term, an honest politician and after 40 years of politicians lying their asses off, it breaks their little minds.

Ironbite-fun to watch though.

Offline dpareja

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #92 on: February 27, 2019, 06:53:26 pm »
Because they have absolutely no idea how to handle her.  She's a typical New Yorker who puts herself out there and backs up everything she's saying.  They can't handle that.  She's, for want of a better term, an honest politician and after 40 years of politicians lying their asses off, it breaks their little minds.

Ironbite-fun to watch though.

Thing is, the best way to handle her is to deny her attention. When they attack her they're just exposing more people to what she's doing and her ideas and giving them oxygen.

The same, honestly, goes for CNN anchors who bring her own to ask her stupid questions about how to pay for her proposals.

But she gets ratings.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline dpareja

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #93 on: March 19, 2019, 06:05:07 pm »
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/18/18271222/beto-orourke-fundraising-haul-2020-sanders

Beto O'Rourke has broken Bernie Sanders' first-day fundraising record.

However, his campaign has declined to release the number of individual donors, or the average donation.

Which could prove problematic...

https://theintercept.com/2018/12/27/dnc-primary-grassroots-fundraising/

Since if he can't hit 1% poll support (and with so many people gunning for the nomination, that's a tall order for any candidate), he needs 65,000 individual donors to get on the stage for the Democratic primary debates.

Personally I hope he drops and challenges Sen. Cornyn instead--if there's enough of a wave, he could win this time around.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Id82

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #94 on: March 19, 2019, 06:47:38 pm »
I think Beto is running too prematurely. He's young and has state level experience, but if he could gang some more experience being a senator or governor for like ten years I think it would increase his chances.

Biden and Bernie have the opposite problem being in their late seventies. The democrats really need a younger more progressive candidate. Harris or Booker might be good, but they might be too corporate.

Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #95 on: March 19, 2019, 10:16:37 pm »
I think Beto is running too prematurely. He's young and has state level experience, but if he could gang some more experience being a senator or governor for like ten years I think it would increase his chances.

Biden and Bernie have the opposite problem being in their late seventies. The democrats really need a younger more progressive candidate. Harris or Booker might be good, but they might be too corporate.

Coming from Texas, Beto's never going to be anything more than a House rep. He tried his level best to climb the hill to Senator and didn't make it (though he came damn close - 14 points above expectations!!). He's definitely not going to make it to Governor. I for one think this is his best possible chance, and I for one hope he kills it in floor debates and gets his shot at the Presidency. I think he'd be an easy win against Trump (if he can get within 2 points in Texas, imagine what he can do in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Nevada!!) and that he'd be a capable, progressive and rational leader to boot.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #96 on: March 20, 2019, 12:41:12 am »
I think Beto is running too prematurely. He's young and has state level experience, but if he could gang some more experience being a senator or governor for like ten years I think it would increase his chances.

Biden and Bernie have the opposite problem being in their late seventies. The democrats really need a younger more progressive candidate. Harris or Booker might be good, but they might be too corporate.

Coming from Texas, Beto's never going to be anything more than a House rep. He tried his level best to climb the hill to Senator and didn't make it (though he came damn close - 14 points above expectations!!). He's definitely not going to make it to Governor. I for one think this is his best possible chance, and I for one hope he kills it in floor debates and gets his shot at the Presidency. I think he'd be an easy win against Trump (if he can get within 2 points in Texas, imagine what he can do in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Nevada!!) and that he'd be a capable, progressive and rational leader to boot.

Capable and rational, yes. (Granted that can be said of just about anyone on the Democratic side--and, I'd venture to add, some on the Republican side, too, even if I might disagree with their policies.) Progressive? Not when he votes with Republicans pretty often (to do stuff like gut the CFPB and deregulate banking), not when Third Way likes him, and not when he was in the New Democrat Coalition.

That he isn't disclosing how many donors he had is problematic--that six-million-plus he raised could have come from as little as 2300 donors all giving the maximum, and he was disavowed by the "no fossil fuel money" pledge group for taking big donations from oil executives. Something tells me that if he had broken the 65,000 individual donors necessary (absent 1% poll support) for debate access with his first-day fundraising, he'd be trumpeting that from the rooftops. (Sen. Harris only made it about three-fifths of the way there on her first-day fundraising and she made the number public.)

But I'm hesitant to speculate on how the Democratic field will shake out until Biden announces one way or the other.

I'm not saying he couldn't win a general Presidential election, but I think he'd have a better chance of riding the coattails of whoever does win the Democratic nomination to knock off Cornyn than he would of winning said nomination.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #97 on: March 20, 2019, 05:46:35 am »
Beto seems like a nice guy and would be decent at any political job, but I really don't like that he won't disclose the donor count because that seems to indicate the establishment's buying him out and possibly wanting to crown him the new frontrunner, I don't want him to end up like another Clinton.

Offline dpareja

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #98 on: March 20, 2019, 06:24:27 am »
Beto seems like a nice guy and would be decent at any political job, but I really don't like that he won't disclose the donor count because that seems to indicate the establishment's buying him out and possibly wanting to crown him the new frontrunner, I don't want him to end up like another Clinton.

I agree, but keep in mind: he was voting to gut the CFPB and deregulate banking, and in the New Democrat Coalition, well before he gave any sign of Presidential aspirations. One hopes that he's stuck to his "no corporate PAC money" pledge (which he made well before it was clear that anyone with 2020 aspirations on the Democratic side would have to do that) but that still leaves room for a lot of ~$2500 donations.

EDIT: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/434918-orourke-raised-61-million-from-over-128000-donors-on-campaigns-first-day

O'Rourke has released more details of his first-day donations, claiming to have over 128,000 unique contributions, for an average donation of around $48. (For some reason, he's saying "unique" contributions where everyone else is saying "individual" contributions, but I don't read anything into that; it's just a difference in terminology.) At any rate, that gets him into the primary debates.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2019, 06:58:05 pm by dpareja »
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #99 on: March 23, 2019, 01:34:51 am »
Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke, Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Booker, CloudBootJar, Hickenlooper, Castro, and Jay Inslee all have 1% or higher in polling. At the moment they all qualify. Gillibrand and Yang have hovered around and surpassed 1% in a few polls.

Have there been any of those official qualifying polls yet? First debates coming up in June and I want to know what the field will look like for it. I want Inslee in the debates so he can talk about our state leading on the Climate Change issue and I want Yang in to bring up debate about his pet issue of UBI.

Warren, O'Rourke, Sanders, Harris, Biden (is he running officially yet? what's the hold up?) and Booker I'd say are all solid locks to get on the debate stage.

Offline dpareja

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #100 on: March 23, 2019, 06:52:35 am »
I think Biden's trying to figure out whether entering will be a good thing or a bad thing for his side of the current ideological divide in the Democratic Party. He's polling very well now, but he has a history of underperforming his poll numbers, so donors might be leery of backing him. (Whether they stick with O'Rourke, where they seem to be right now, or go to someone like Harris is another matter.)

As for polls, I don't know... and if Gabbard isn't near either threshold, I wonder if she'll call it quits soon.
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline dpareja

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #101 on: May 02, 2019, 06:43:59 am »
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/wall-street-democrats-2020-candidates.html

Wall Street Democratic donors, apparently, have very little idea of what to do to keep all of Sanders, Warren, and Trump out of the White House after January 19, 2021.

And some of them have decided that their paycheques are more important than their social values (ie they're saying "fuck it" and backing Trump).
Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Offline Kanzenkankaku

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #103 on: May 03, 2019, 12:39:32 am »
Biden is such a dipshit it's frustrating to me that some hack like him is a frontrunner.

Offline DarkPhoenix

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Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
« Reply #104 on: May 04, 2019, 01:20:09 am »
Biden is such a dipshit it's frustrating to me that some hack like him is a frontrunner.

Only two groups that really seem to like Joe: people who aren't really paying attention and only know Joe as "Obama's VP", and assume a Biden Presidency will be Obama term 3, and centrists who think ideas like health care and education are too communist, but are afraid of the current Republican Party.

The Dems should really be hoping Joe doesn't end up winning, because it's going to be hard to run a non-hypocritical campaign against Trump with him as the front guy...