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Community => Politics and Government => Topic started by: Id82 on January 24, 2019, 05:17:32 pm

Title: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Id82 on January 24, 2019, 05:17:32 pm
So anyone have any predictions about what is going to happen over the next two to six years? We have two years now until we vote for a possible replacement to Trump and I've seen a lot of people saying Trump is sure fire to lose the election in 2020 just look at how awful he is. I live in my bubble and everyone in here says they hate him so of course he's going to lose. I think differently though. Not because I want Trump to win or support him in any way. I just don't have a lot of faith in American voters and their ridiculously short attention spans. This Government shut down will be forgotten about by the time the election comes around, as well as his other growing lists of short comings.

I think come 2020 Trump is going to win Re election. I don't think the Democrats are going to pick anyone that will excite voters all that much despite the large amount of people running. Trump will be relentless in his bullying and might still have Russia aiding him in his re election. I hope I'm wrong about this, but I just think the rust belt is still going to swing for Trump. If he wins Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida it's going to be tough for the Democrats to win.

I believe the Democrats will retain the House and gain some seats in the Senate but not enough to win the Senate in 2020.

Once Trump wins re election over the last four years of his presidency the Republican party will finally realize they can be free of him and start to turn on him as they focus on the next leader who they can prop up. Trump won't be able to get anything done with a Democratic House and he'll just be sitting around angry, alone and bored for the remainder of his presidency if he actually doesn't resign or end up impeached. I don't think impeachment is likely,

I think the Democrats will take back the Senate in 2022. Stripping Trump of any legislative power from then on. Trump will try and do some things through executive actions but the Democrats will make it very hard for him, and he'll just become a joke that no one takes seriously anymore.

Ruth Bader Ginsberg will either retire or pass away, but with a Democratic Senate they'll keep Trump's nominees from going through.

Republicans are quick to turn on their leadership once they see their leadership is weakened. It happened with George W Bush and will probably happen with Trump.

Come 2024 well have Vice President Mike Pence running on the Republican ticket. He has expressed a lot of interest in running for President and I think he'll run strongly unopposed since the Republican party will be fractured at this point. Mike Pence will try and pick a crazy person as his running mate to try and hold onto the disenfranchised Trump voters, but the truth is nobody really cares about Mike Pence. He's as interesting as Dry Wall, sexist, behind the times when it comes to women's rights and won't be considered exciting. The Trump voters won't turn out like they did for Trump.

The Democrats will have someone exciting finally. I honestly think we haven't even heard of this person yet, but I think it will be a woman and she'll win by a landslide and will be demonized by the right continuously during her run and during her presidency. If the tea party was any indication of the political climate to come and paved the way for Donald Trump, than I think the #Metoo movements and women's rights marches are a sign of how things are going and I think 2018 was just the beginning.

The Media will ask what happened to the Republican party, they don't have a message and they're not organized much like they did after Hillary lost in 2016.

The only way my predictions change is if the economy crashes sometime later this year or next year. Then I think Trump will lose.

So has anyone else been predicting how things will turn out?
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on January 24, 2019, 05:34:12 pm
Everything hinges on the 2020 Democratic Presidential primary, because with 20+ seats to defend in the Senate those coattails could throw a lot of incumbents aside.

That is all.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on January 24, 2019, 05:57:50 pm
Presictions, eh? Well, sometime this summer McConnell turns on Trump. McConnell likes being kingmaker and will throw his support behind an establishment challenger. I'm thinking Romney and Nikki Hailey, although personally I'd love to see Huntsman do well.

The Democrats, I'm not too sure. It'll be a bitter ugly primary between the Establishment and Bernie Babies. I can't call that one. If pushed, I suspect Biden/ Beto would narrowly edge out Bernie and what's his face from Indiana. But there are way too many variables for me to have any confidence.

So a Mexican standoff between Trump/Pence, Romney/Hailey, and possibly Biden/Beto. Either way the House picks up quite a few Democrat seats. Senate picks up a few as well. Whatever the majority party is, it's just barely a majority.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on January 24, 2019, 06:11:49 pm
McConnell won't turn on Trump. Trump is significantly more popular in Kentucky than McConnell is, so doing that would open McConnell up to a primary challenge.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on January 24, 2019, 06:18:49 pm
Also the RNC just said no Primaries for 2020 so....

Ironbite-no challenger to the Emperor.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on January 24, 2019, 06:36:57 pm
I stand by what I said.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Chaos Undivided on January 24, 2019, 06:49:42 pm
I think there are a few big factors that will shape the outcome of 2020.

-Whether the Democrats learn from the mistakes they made in the last presidential election or double down on them.
-Whether they run a more conventional "establishment" candidate or somebody more radical and/or populist.
-Whether Trump gets challenged by other Republicans, and if so, how seriously.
-Whether Mueller's investigation uncovers something actionable against Trump himself.
-Whether the economy continues to do well.

And that's not even getting into the myriad of media-related factors.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on January 24, 2019, 08:13:35 pm
Also the RNC just said no Primaries for 2020 so....

Ironbite-no challenger to the Emperor.

I've seen stories about how they want to, and how some state parties are looking to do just that (South Carolina, which is of course important, being an early primary state), but nothing to indicate that they have. (The only piece I could find that talked about them cancelling all primaries and caucuses said that they might not be able to change the rules at this point.)

But the RNC knows where its bread is buttered. They know a huge chunk of their base is TFG. They don't dare risk Trump losing the nomination in 2020 if he's still eligible.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on January 24, 2019, 08:41:21 pm
I think there are a few big factors that will shape the outcome of 2020.

-Whether the Democrats learn from the mistakes they made in the last presidential election or double down on them.
-Whether they run a more conventional "establishment" candidate or somebody more radical and/or populist.
-Whether Trump gets challenged by other Republicans, and if so, how seriously.
-Whether Mueller's investigation uncovers something actionable against Trump himself.
-Whether the economy continues to do well.

And that's not even getting into the myriad of media-related factors.

Economics experts were predicting the economy to crash in the near future BEFORE the Whiner-in-Chief shut down the government for his stupid wall.  And as mentioned, there won't be any challenges to Trump.  The RNC has chosen to dismantle itself and merge with the Trump 2020 campaign, which means Republicans are already declaring Trump their 2020 candidate.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on January 24, 2019, 08:54:13 pm
The RNC has chosen to dismantle itself and merge with the Trump 2020 campaign, which means Republicans are already declaring Trump their 2020 candidate.

Source?
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Askold on January 25, 2019, 04:24:40 am
Also the RNC just said no Primaries for 2020 so....

Ironbite-no challenger to the Emperor.

If they have a primary and Trump loses it will tear apart their voterbase because the Trump-cult is fanatical and will not vote for anyone else. ...But the Trump-cult isn't as big as it used to be. The primary would reveal that. By not having a primary not only will they preserve the "unity" within the party (because the average GOP supporter will vote for Trump if the alternative is a Democrat) but if Trump loses the loss will be personified on him because it is not like the voter-base for GOP got to have anything to say in who their candidate was.

It's the safe choice for them. If they lose they'll just go back to being the "party of NO" and obstructing anything the new president tries to do. Their voters will eat it up like they've done all the years before.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on January 25, 2019, 04:53:58 am
Also, one thing to keep in mind: Florida just went from "unpredictable" to "completely, utterly unpredictable" because the state Constitution was just amended to restore voting rights to citizens who had been convicted of felonies, other than murder and felony sex offences, and have served their full sentences. This also has the effect of making it much more difficult for the state government to randomly disenfranchise people, since their favourite tactic was to see that some innocent (non-white) guy had the same first and last names as a convicted felon (never mind middle initials or anything like that) and claim that they're the same person.

I think the current estimate on how many people just got the vote in Florida is 1.4 million.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on January 25, 2019, 07:31:56 am
Also the RNC just said no Primaries for 2020 so....

Ironbite-no challenger to the Emperor.

If they have a primary and Trump loses it will tear apart their voterbase because the Trump-cult is fanatical and will not vote for anyone else. ...But the Trump-cult isn't as big as it used to be. The primary would reveal that. By not having a primary not only will they preserve the "unity" within the party (because the average GOP supporter will vote for Trump if the alternative is a Democrat) but if Trump loses the loss will be personified on him because it is not like the voter-base for GOP got to have anything to say in who their candidate was.

It's the safe choice for them. If they lose they'll just go back to being the "party of NO" and obstructing anything the new president tries to do. Their voters will eat it up like they've done all the years before.

Yeah but usually they don't blatantly just do this.  Usually nobody at all primaries the President.  Why come out this year and do it?

Ironbite-my thought is he had a challenger that could probably kill him and the RNC is now the Party of Trump.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on January 25, 2019, 12:21:46 pm
The RNC has chosen to dismantle itself and merge with the Trump 2020 campaign, which means Republicans are already declaring Trump their 2020 candidate.

Source?

Here: https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics/trump-2020-campaign-rnc/index.html
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on January 25, 2019, 05:55:30 pm
The RNC has chosen to dismantle itself and merge with the Trump 2020 campaign, which means Republicans are already declaring Trump their 2020 candidate.

Source?

Here: https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics/trump-2020-campaign-rnc/index.html

Hunh.

I'm reminded of Donna Brazile's claims (note: claims; I am not saying I necessarily believe them) regarding the relationship between the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, or how Obama dumped a lot of his 2008 campaign debt on the DNC.

EDIT: Also, it makes "anti-Trump Republican" an oxymoron.

EDIT #2: Richard Ojeda dropped out of the 2020 Democratic primaries, since he couldn't get any media attention and couldn't raise enough money to compete against candidates who are themselves wealthy or are taking funds from big-money PACs. I hope he'll look to challenge Sen. Capito.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Radiation on February 01, 2019, 06:11:26 pm
Well, looks like Bernie is going to run again https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2019/01/25/report-bernie-sanders-to-announce-2020-presidential-run-imminently

And Tulsi Gabbard. Not sure about Hillary but I think I've read somewhere that she is thinking about running again.

Kamala Harris has said that she is going to run and Elizabeth Warren too.

I don't know any of these women except for Hillary so I don't know much about what their platforms are. I guess I have plenty of time to research them.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: niam2023 on February 01, 2019, 08:58:44 pm
...before long Sanders is gonna become one of those "And also this man ran again" candidates.

Unless we can dunk him in the Fountain of Youth I could see his age being a major factor against him.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on February 02, 2019, 01:29:18 am
If Tulsi had any hope of being the candidate, her attempt to BothSides the government shutdown likely killed them.  And why is Bernie running again?  Dude, you're in your EIGHTIES.  People are going to want someone a big younger...
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: niam2023 on February 02, 2019, 01:33:07 am
I think I'll be in my forties and somehow, someway, I'll STILL wind up seeing "Bernie Sanders contemplating running for President again".

Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 02, 2019, 02:42:14 am
...before long Sanders is gonna become one of those "And also this man ran again" candidates.

Unless we can dunk him in the Fountain of Youth I could see his age being a major factor against him.

Tell me: what do you think of Joe Biden potentially running? Because literally every point you raise applies to him. (Unless somewhere in the fourteen months separating Biden from Sanders in age is the line between "too old" and "young enough".)
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: niam2023 on February 02, 2019, 03:10:53 am
I'd honestly say the very same thing. Past a certain point the risk of senior citizen related diseases and sudden death become too high to ignore.

Trump himself is no spring chicken - we need some new blood, Republican and Democrat both, or we risk becoming basically a geriontocracy.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Eiki-mun on February 02, 2019, 03:16:52 am
I'm putting my support behind my local senator (Kamala Harris) or, failing her, Beto O'Rourke. Young, passionate and charismatic, they're just the kind of people I think could win the Presidency.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 02, 2019, 06:17:34 am
O'Rourke gives me very uncomfortable Trudeau-vibes. Charismatic, youthful, speaks well about social issues but is very friendly with the big oil. That is a huge alarm bell for a potential presidential candidate specially from an environmental point of view but in the worst case can influence also foreign policy.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 02, 2019, 06:53:39 am
O'Rourke gives me very uncomfortable Trudeau-vibes. Charismatic, youthful, speaks well about social issues but is very friendly with the big oil. That is a huge alarm bell for a potential presidential candidate specially from an environmental point of view but in the worst case can influence also foreign policy.

Sen. Harris, meanwhile, has some red flags from her time as Attorney General of California--see, for instance, her declining to prosecute Steven Mnuchin (who just so happened to donate to her campaigns).
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 02, 2019, 08:48:19 am
Howard Shultz is saying some interesting things. I must say, I don't hate where he's coming from, especially as an independent.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on February 02, 2019, 02:06:15 pm
O'Rourke gives me very uncomfortable Trudeau-vibes. Charismatic, youthful, speaks well about social issues but is very friendly with the big oil. That is a huge alarm bell for a potential presidential candidate specially from an environmental point of view but in the worst case can influence also foreign policy.

The problem is, when you say "friendly with big oil", you ACTUALLY mean "received donations from people who work for big oil, and NOT the CEO's, if you catch my meaning"...

O'Rourke gives me very uncomfortable Trudeau-vibes. Charismatic, youthful, speaks well about social issues but is very friendly with the big oil. That is a huge alarm bell for a potential presidential candidate specially from an environmental point of view but in the worst case can influence also foreign policy.

Sen. Harris, meanwhile, has some red flags from her time as Attorney General of California--see, for instance, her declining to prosecute Steven Mnuchin (who just so happened to donate to her campaigns).

My understanding of that situation is that Harris decided that trying to prosecute the bigwigs would have drawn out into a long court case, and she decided it would be better for the people suffering if she got them immediate relief.  See https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1/21/1827095/-Kamala-Harris-and-the-big-lie-that-she-didn-t-prosecute-Mnuchin .

Howard Shultz is saying some interesting things. I must say, I don't hate where he's coming from, especially as an independent.

I would suggest not voting for the guy who's entire campaign at the moment is "I don't want my taxes raised"...
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Eiki-mun on February 02, 2019, 02:32:29 pm
Definitely not a fan of Schultz, partly because of his background (really, do we need *another* billionaire rich man business person with no government experience? Look at how well the *current* one is turning out), partly because he is, as I think Paul Krugman put it well, a "radical centrist" and I really don't need more of them around, and partly because I'm really scared he's going to spoil the election and give Trump a second term.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 02, 2019, 03:43:14 pm
Yeah Schultz's main problem is he's an idiot and really shouldn't be in this race at all.  But he's entering because AOC is threatening to "raise his taxes" back to when he was a kid in order to help fund this country.

Ironbite-keep in mind all Schultz has ever done is realize people like coffee.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 02, 2019, 06:27:54 pm
Eiki, I don't see how a businessman is any worse than a career politician. Both actively are against we the people, except for what we can do for them. Both are about keeping their own interests happy. And none of them has any idea what their people's struggles really are. Nor do they care.
Now it'll make everyone happy that I'm not voting for Schultz. Were I to vote for any business person it would have been Fiorina, but that ship has sailed a few years ago.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 02, 2019, 06:29:08 pm
O'Rourke gives me very uncomfortable Trudeau-vibes. Charismatic, youthful, speaks well about social issues but is very friendly with the big oil. That is a huge alarm bell for a potential presidential candidate specially from an environmental point of view but in the worst case can influence also foreign policy.

The problem is, when you say "friendly with big oil", you ACTUALLY mean "received donations from people who work for big oil, and NOT the CEO's, if you catch my meaning"...

75% of his oil industry donations were not small donations from the workers but sums of over $200 from the executives (https://readsludge.com/2018/12/10/beto-orourke-oil-and-gas-contributions-2018/) with the total from the industry being second to only Ted Cruz among the House and Congress members. This broke the conditions of the No Fossil Fuel Money pledge he had signed and caused him being removed from that list.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Sigmaleph on February 02, 2019, 07:28:13 pm
God I hope Hillary doesn't try to run again

I have heard the least bad things about Warren, I guess.

(not that it matters, I don't vote in your elections)
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 02, 2019, 08:04:48 pm
(not that it matters, I don't vote in your elections)

Neither do I but when it comes to things like environmental and foreign policies every single human being on Earth has an invested interest in the election. Where and how the president decides to use the country's (hopefully soft instead of military) power will have a huge difference in dealing with our common problems. This is something where Sanders seems to be the most promising candidate (if he declares) which is a nice improvement for him. Foreign policy was a glaring weakness for him in the last election, after all. I'm also interested to see what Warren's foreign policy proposals will look like since there are apparently rumors that she has reconsidered her old hawkish attitude.

Also, out of pure solidarity towards Americans as fellow human beings I hope they finally bring their health care system to a level where millions don't die avoidable deaths.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 02, 2019, 08:46:48 pm
Sen. Warren has a huge blind spot on foreign policy; she regularly votes for military budget increases where Sanders, along with the few libertarians and paleoconservatives in the Senate, like Paul and Lee, vote against them.

Right now, aside from military budget increases, the biggest disconnect between Democratic politicians (at least those who are likely to run) and the Democratic base on foreign policy is probably support for BDS. There's a few in the House (like Rep. Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent) who express support for it, but meanwhile in the Senate there's bipartisan (read: bad for you) efforts to effectively ban it, which is a ridiculously unconstitutional crackdown on free expression.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Eiki-mun on February 02, 2019, 08:49:28 pm
Eiki, I don't see how a businessman is any worse than a career politician. Both actively are against we the people, except for what we can do for them. Both are about keeping their own interests happy. And none of them has any idea what their people's struggles really are. Nor do they care.
Now it'll make everyone happy that I'm not voting for Schultz. Were I to vote for any business person it would have been Fiorina, but that ship has sailed a few years ago.

There is one major difference, and we're finding out about it now, and it's that businessmen don't actually understand how government works. For Exhibit A just look at Trump, who's been trying to run government like a business (one man at the top who makes the big decisions, rather than a President working in tandem with two houses of Congress to make decisions together), and the only reason it hasn't yet been a disaster is sheer luck. Whatever you might say about interests, and you certainly have a valid point there, at least the career politician understands the way the system works, or at least is supposed to work.

Plus, I honestly think Harris is a decent person. In fact, I would say that about most of the Democratic candidates and even a few of the potential Republican candidates (Kasich, for example). And for what it's worth, I think Schultz is probably a pretty decent person, but he's also most likely completely ignorant of government. Also, to be honest, Trump has given the concept of any businessman with no government experience taking the Presidency a bad taste in my mouth that will probably linger for a long time.

That, and a Democrat running as an Independent will practically guarantee a second term for Trump. Just look at 1912, when a Republican ran as an Independent and handed the Presidency to a Democrat that won only 42% of the popular vote. Do we really want a repeat of that with the orange nightmare in charge?
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: The_Queen on February 02, 2019, 10:35:17 pm
Sen. Warren has a huge blind spot on foreign policy; she regularly votes for military budget increases where Sanders, along with the few libertarians and paleoconservatives in the Senate, like Paul and Lee, vote against them.

Right now, aside from military budget increases, the biggest disconnect between Democratic politicians (at least those who are likely to run) and the Democratic base on foreign policy is probably support for BDS. There's a few in the House (like Rep. Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent) who express support for it, but meanwhile in the Senate there's bipartisan (read: bad for you) efforts to effectively ban it, which is a ridiculously unconstitutional crackdown on free expression.

I said in 2016 that Bernie would win in 2020, largely because of attitudes like this. As trendy a pick as Biden is, and as wild as Beto-mania is running, I’m sticking with my previous prediction.

And my preference, still subject to change with the widening field and debates, is actually Warren. Call me smitten, but when she’s the mother of the CFPB, and wrote legal text books in the fields of securities, collateral, and debtor law, yeah, I think she has the requisite intelligence and disciple for the job.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: RavynousHunter on February 02, 2019, 11:08:47 pm
There's a difference between running a business and running a country.  You actually need foresight to run the latter, while the former can be run with a focus barely an inch away from one's nose.  Plus, businessmen have no policymaking or foreign relations experience.  In the field of governance, businessmen are all the north end of useless.  Yes, politicians are pretty much all career liars and in the pockets of every Tom, Dick, and Teardrinker in the country, but they actually have experience running a country, for better or worse.  If I have to choose between a successful businessman and a middling politician, I'll take the politician any day of the week.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 03, 2019, 12:16:51 am
Sen. Warren has a huge blind spot on foreign policy; she regularly votes for military budget increases where Sanders, along with the few libertarians and paleoconservatives in the Senate, like Paul and Lee, vote against them.

Right now, aside from military budget increases, the biggest disconnect between Democratic politicians (at least those who are likely to run) and the Democratic base on foreign policy is probably support for BDS. There's a few in the House (like Rep. Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent) who express support for it, but meanwhile in the Senate there's bipartisan (read: bad for you) efforts to effectively ban it, which is a ridiculously unconstitutional crackdown on free expression.

I said in 2016 that Bernie would win in 2020, largely because of attitudes like this. As trendy a pick as Biden is, and as wild as Beto-mania is running, I’m sticking with my previous prediction.

And my preference, still subject to change with the widening field and debates, is actually Warren. Call me smitten, but when she’s the mother of the CFPB, and wrote legal text books in the fields of securities, collateral, and debtor law, yeah, I think she has the requisite intelligence and disciple for the job.

I'm pointing out Sen. Warren's main weakness, which is foreign policy. The fact that she got the CFPB into Dodd-Frank is absolutely a massive plus in her column, and one would hope that she could find good Secretaries of State and Defense to mitigate her foreign policy issues. (Tulsi Gabbard comes to mind.)
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 03, 2019, 01:39:56 am
Please don't let Gabbard anywhere near foreign policy decision making. I hope the American foreign policy aims at constructive and long term solution in the Middle East and she is horrible when it comes to that area. While she does want to minimize direct military intervention her rhetoric is that of isolationism, not constructive cooperation.

Back when Obama was in office she was part of the moronic choir demanding him to say the magic words "Islamic terrorism" as if that was a problem. She even went to Fox News not to challenge their perspective but to support it. She has also mocked the idea that material conditions make people susceptible to extreme interpretations of Islam. From that point of view one cannot accomplish anything constructive and sustainable in Middle East. If you are not interested in improving the material conditions of people living there there is a very logical other option as long as you only care about American lives: give space and implicit support for strongman leaders to keep their people in line with violence and oppression. She has shown clear signs of favoring this option.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on February 03, 2019, 01:49:53 am
Not only that, but she took time out of her duties in Congress to fly to Syria and meet with Bashar al-Assad, who while operating as the leader of Syria routinely used gas attacks on his own people to murder "dissidents".  In her opinion, allowing Assad to take back control of Syria would somehow be good for the region (never mind it'll lead to the murder of the US' Kurdish allies AND give Russia complete control of the region).

But there's a group of people pushing her because she "wants to get the US out of all their pointless foreign entanglements", and these morons ignore that there's a way and a time to do so, and this ain't it...
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Askold on February 03, 2019, 02:21:19 am
The thing about the coffee billionaire is that he appears to be hoping to steal votes from Democrats. In other words he would be helping the GOP candidate by weakening his opponent more than anything else.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on February 03, 2019, 03:01:53 am
I'm still mad at coffee billionaire because he sold my home basketball team and got them moved to Oklahoma. Petty yes, but since then he's done nothing to gain any respect and a lot more to lose even more of it.

My preference right now is Warren. A few smaller names have caught my eye, like Peter Buttigieg (first openly gay candidate) from Indiana and my state's Gov. Jay Inslee (for his goal of fighting climate change). I'd also be willing to hop back on the Sanders wagon if it looks like he's still a strong contender.

I think Warren probably has the best shot.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 03, 2019, 04:57:04 am
The thing about the coffee billionaire is that he appears to be hoping to steal votes from Democrats. In other words he would be helping the GOP candidate by weakening his opponent more than anything else.

Pretty sure that's exactly it. He doesn't like the idea of 1950s-level marginal rates and he doesn't like the idea of Warren's wealth tax (which is of debatable constitutionality anyway, not being either apportioned among the states or a tax on income) either.

Ultimately, given a choice between that or the GOP, the Republicans are better for his pocketbook.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 03, 2019, 10:35:33 am
There's a difference between running a business and running a country.  You actually need foresight to run the latter, while the former can be run with a focus barely an inch away from one's nose.  Plus, businessmen have no policymaking or foreign relations experience.  In the field of governance, businessmen are all the north end of useless.  Yes, politicians are pretty much all career liars and in the pockets of every Tom, Dick, and Teardrinker in the country, but they actually have experience running a country, for better or worse.  If I have to choose between a successful businessman and a middling politician, I'll take the politician any day of the week.

Again, not voting for Shultz, nor did I vote for Trump. I say that to say this though. I've never ever had a businessman screw me over as hard or as throughly as a politician.

And let's take a look at what the politicians are running. You pointed out that politicians do have experience running a country. I know what you meant, but let's replace country with jurisdictions, as there are 2 more levels of government than federal. And usually federal is the least important to say tho day life.

Flint, MI still has poisonous water that the residents (customers?) are still presented with a bill for. Maryland has one of the highest per student spending in the nation but the schools are still crumbling. Joe Arapaio armed a bunch of people, some with let's say questionable pasts, to stand around kids. McConnell outright stated his goal was to make Obama a one term president, not try to make good policy for the nation. Half of Puerto Rico is still without power. Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina Carolina one other state I can't remember were called in front of the USSC for their gerrymandering corruption. Is that the type of experience you're talking about?
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 03, 2019, 12:38:57 pm
There's a difference between running a business and running a country.  You actually need foresight to run the latter, while the former can be run with a focus barely an inch away from one's nose.  Plus, businessmen have no policymaking or foreign relations experience.  In the field of governance, businessmen are all the north end of useless.  Yes, politicians are pretty much all career liars and in the pockets of every Tom, Dick, and Teardrinker in the country, but they actually have experience running a country, for better or worse.  If I have to choose between a successful businessman and a middling politician, I'll take the politician any day of the week.

Again, not voting for Shultz, nor did I vote for Trump. I say that to say this though. I've never ever had a businessman screw me over as hard or as throughly as a politician.

And let's take a look at what the politicians are running. You pointed out that politicians do have experience running a country. I know what you meant, but let's replace country with jurisdictions, as there are 2 more levels of government than federal. And usually federal is the least important to say tho day life.

Flint, MI still has poisonous water that the residents (customers?) are still presented with a bill for. Maryland has one of the highest per student spending in the nation but the schools are still crumbling. Joe Arapaio armed a bunch of people, some with let's say questionable pasts, to stand around kids. McConnell outright stated his goal was to make Obama a one term president, not try to make good policy for the nation. Half of Puerto Rico is still without power. Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina Carolina one other state I can't remember were called in front of the USSC for their gerrymandering corruption. Is that the type of experience you're talking about?

There is one letter in common with the politicians behind those disasters (except Maryland?): R.

The businessmen don't need to screw you over directly. They can influence politicians to do their dirty work for them instead. The more unscrupulous politicians can be influenced through direct financial contributions and the more well-meaning ones through lobbying and funding think tanks and universities to create ideologically beneficial research results.

Any given politician is influenced by the forces that put them in power, keep them there and who have access to them in their everyday decision making. Most people are well-meaning but their perspectives and life experiences result in blind spots that can either be taken advantage of intentionally or mutually reinforced through social interactions. Generally, the more power you accumulate, the more distanced you get from the everyday experiences of common people and more likely you are to lose some or all empathy towards them. This applies to everyone including both politicians and businessmen.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 03, 2019, 03:19:05 pm
Sen. Warren has a huge blind spot on foreign policy; she regularly votes for military budget increases where Sanders, along with the few libertarians and paleoconservatives in the Senate, like Paul and Lee, vote against them.

Right now, aside from military budget increases, the biggest disconnect between Democratic politicians (at least those who are likely to run) and the Democratic base on foreign policy is probably support for BDS. There's a few in the House (like Rep. Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent) who express support for it, but meanwhile in the Senate there's bipartisan (read: bad for you) efforts to effectively ban it, which is a ridiculously unconstitutional crackdown on free expression.

I said in 2016 that Bernie would win in 2020, largely because of attitudes like this. As trendy a pick as Biden is, and as wild as Beto-mania is running, I’m sticking with my previous prediction.

And my preference, still subject to change with the widening field and debates, is actually Warren. Call me smitten, but when she’s the mother of the CFPB, and wrote legal text books in the fields of securities, collateral, and debtor law, yeah, I think she has the requisite intelligence and disciple for the job.

Awwww...that's so adorable.

Ironbite-I'm personally waiting to see if Tammy Duckworth wants to take a crack at the Orange Piss Pot.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 03, 2019, 10:53:51 pm
Here's a little nugget to chew on:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-president-election-1.5004407

A young anti-corruption, anti-establishment left-wing candidate is poised to win the Presidency of El Salvador on the first ballot. (A runoff, if necessary, would be held in March). He assembled a coalition similar to that assembled by Lopez Obrador in Mexico (that is, including a small right-wing party; see Linz, "The Perils of Presidentialism" on the problem of inflexible coalitions in presidential systems).

Take note: left-wing anti-establishment candidates win on the first ballot (or, in Lopez Obrador's case, with 50%+ of the vote in a one-round system). Right-wing anti-establishment candidates need the second round (Bolsonaro in Brazil), get only a plurality (Duterte in the Philippines) or win because the electoral system does not truly reflect popular support (Trump).
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 04, 2019, 05:51:18 am
Maryland and Michigan both have the big ol D after their political problems. I made sure to include a good mix of both.

And you're right. I shouldn't believe every Democrat is as corrupt as O'Malley. Just as I shouldn't treat all businessmen as if they're Trump
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 04, 2019, 10:01:53 am
Maryland and Michigan both have the big ol D after their political problems. I made sure to include a good mix of both.

And you're right. I shouldn't believe every Democrat is as corrupt as O'Malley. Just as I shouldn't treat all businessmen as if they're Trump

Michigan's been controlled by Republicans of late.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 04, 2019, 01:47:03 pm
Maybe so. But the city of Flint is still heavily blue. According to the latest voter data along with a quick peek at their mayor and city council. But even still,
 state and local, blue and red, putting differences aside and coming together to screw over a city.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 04, 2019, 03:33:30 pm
Flint might be Blue but the rest of the state, sadly, is not.

Ironbite-which might be the issue here.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 04, 2019, 04:30:31 pm
Maybe so. But the city of Flint is still heavily blue. According to the latest voter data along with a quick peek at their mayor and city council. But even still,
 state and local, blue and red, putting differences aside and coming together to screw over a city.

Snyder installed his own guys to basically override Flint's municipal legislators.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 04, 2019, 04:44:17 pm
That's funny! A couple years ago our mayor put in a few people to keep the governor's people out.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 04, 2019, 08:00:55 pm
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/el-salvador-nayib-bukele-president-election-1.5004407

Update on that presidential election in El Salvador: Nayib Bukele, the former mayor of San Salvador, who ran for the Presidency as a third-party, left-wing, anti-corruption, anti-establishment candidate, has received 54% of the vote with 44% of polling stations reporting, and the candidates from the two major parties have conceded defeat, almost certainly obviating any need for a second round.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 06, 2019, 06:11:26 pm
So, in Virginia, Northam was caught in either blackface or a KKK outfit, Fairfax has been accused of sexual assault, and Herring has admitted to wearing blackface.

If they all resign, the Speaker of the House of Delegates (Republican Kirk Cox) becomes Governor... and if he's also caught in something unsuitable (though what's "unsuitable" for Republicans is far laxer than what's "unsuitable" for Democrats) the new Governor is elected by the House of Delegates, currently controlled by Republicans.

I'm betting one of those first three finds a way to stick around at least long enough to make sure the Republicans can't pass another awful gerrymander.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 06, 2019, 06:14:57 pm
None of them are resigning despite massive pressure to do so.  Fairfax is the one with the least amount of terrible on him so he'll probably be the 2nd Black Governor of Virginia.

Ironbite-I fully expect this to be some sort of weird conspiracy against the top three Dems in Virginia though.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 06, 2019, 06:48:17 pm
None of them are resigning despite massive pressure to do so.  Fairfax is the one with the least amount of terrible on him so he'll probably be the 2nd Black Governor of Virginia.

Ironbite-I fully expect this to be some sort of weird conspiracy against the top three Dems in Virginia though.

Problem with Fairfax is that (according to someone from Virginia I converse with on another forum) there's a tacit agreement between energy companies and the Democratic Party that they won't have as Governor anyone who's too opposed to pipelines. Having Fairfax as Governor would, apparently, violate that understanding. That is, I am informed, not the case with Northam and Herring.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 06, 2019, 08:53:18 pm
Ironbite, of course it's that. The Dems took out the governor for his foot to mouth explaining that abortion bill. He screwed the pooch so the party leaked those pics and let what happens happen. Why the other two? My guess is collateral damage. But Ralph was an inside hit.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 07, 2019, 03:02:25 pm
Apparently, the Chief Deputy AG of Virginia is a black woman--plus, replacing the AG is a gubernatorial appointment that doesn't need legislative approval.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Herring resign, Northam appoint the deputy, then both Northam and Fairfax quit.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 07, 2019, 03:09:41 pm
That's if Northam has an ounce of self-preservation in his head.

Ironbite-like I've said, Fairfax looks to be the least awful so he'll probably be the next Governor.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: niam2023 on February 07, 2019, 04:11:00 pm
Its very important to check the sources on the sexual harassment story - the right wing like Cernovich is infamous by now for fabricating these things to both discredit Me Too and to force out political enemies. If the story is only being pushed on Drudge and Breitbart you know whose plan this is.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 07, 2019, 04:43:08 pm
Fairfax's response to the WaPo response wasn't....good though.  That's where the calls for resignation on his end come from.  But yeah, the Fairfax smear looks like an conspiracy where as the Northam and Herring things look like stupid youthful indiscretions that should not be tolerated.

Ironbite-at all.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: rookie on February 08, 2019, 03:54:29 pm
I'd agree with that. Fairfax is collateral damage.

Hmm. I'm not that far away. And there's no racist skeletons in my closet. Maybe I should go down and be governor for a while until their next elections.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 08, 2019, 07:16:00 pm
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/virginia-politics-racism-sexual-assault-1.5012351

Second accusation against Fairfax.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on February 08, 2019, 08:58:24 pm
Yep.  Looks like all three are scumbags that should resign.  But this needs to be done very carefully, with experts figuring out a gameplan; otherwise, the end result of this mess is that the Republican Speaker of the Virginia House becomes Governor, and while we're discussing racist acts in the past... This guy was the editor of his school yearbook.  And the whole thing is filled with the same sort of racist bullshit that people are getting mad at Northam about, along with blackface, KKK stuff and so on.  He's more racist & sexist than all three Dems combined.
And unlike the Dems, if he gets the Governor position, he won't step down... The Repubs don't consider being racist or sexist disqualifying.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 08, 2019, 09:36:39 pm
Yep.  Looks like all three are scumbags that should resign.  But this needs to be done very carefully, with experts figuring out a gameplan; otherwise, the end result of this mess is that the Republican Speaker of the Virginia House becomes Governor, and while we're discussing racist acts in the past... This guy was the editor of his school yearbook.  And the whole thing is filled with the same sort of racist bullshit that people are getting mad at Northam about, along with blackface, KKK stuff and so on.  He's more racist & sexist than all three Dems combined.
And unlike the Dems, if he gets the Governor position, he won't step down... The Repubs don't consider being racist or sexist disqualifying.

The Chief Deputy AG is a black woman. Someone vet her so Herring can step down, Northam can appoint her, then Northam and Fairfax step down.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on February 08, 2019, 11:52:27 pm
Yep.  Looks like all three are scumbags that should resign.  But this needs to be done very carefully, with experts figuring out a gameplan; otherwise, the end result of this mess is that the Republican Speaker of the Virginia House becomes Governor, and while we're discussing racist acts in the past... This guy was the editor of his school yearbook.  And the whole thing is filled with the same sort of racist bullshit that people are getting mad at Northam about, along with blackface, KKK stuff and so on.  He's more racist & sexist than all three Dems combined.
And unlike the Dems, if he gets the Governor position, he won't step down... The Repubs don't consider being racist or sexist disqualifying.

The Chief Deputy AG is a black woman. Someone vet her so Herring can step down, Northam can appoint her, then Northam and Fairfax step down.

The problem is, I can see the Republicans pushing for all three to resign, immediately, and for the status quo to remain; and I'm willing to bet the MSM goes along with them, as they always do.  That's why I say it should probably be game-planned out.  I would bet if they tried what you're suggesting here, the Repubs would complain that putting the DAG in the AG's spot is somehow circumventing the chain of succession and it's "not fair".
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 09, 2019, 12:46:07 am
Yep.  Looks like all three are scumbags that should resign.  But this needs to be done very carefully, with experts figuring out a gameplan; otherwise, the end result of this mess is that the Republican Speaker of the Virginia House becomes Governor, and while we're discussing racist acts in the past... This guy was the editor of his school yearbook.  And the whole thing is filled with the same sort of racist bullshit that people are getting mad at Northam about, along with blackface, KKK stuff and so on.  He's more racist & sexist than all three Dems combined.
And unlike the Dems, if he gets the Governor position, he won't step down... The Repubs don't consider being racist or sexist disqualifying.

The Chief Deputy AG is a black woman. Someone vet her so Herring can step down, Northam can appoint her, then Northam and Fairfax step down.

The problem is, I can see the Republicans pushing for all three to resign, immediately, and for the status quo to remain; and I'm willing to bet the MSM goes along with them, as they always do.  That's why I say it should probably be game-planned out.  I would bet if they tried what you're suggesting here, the Repubs would complain that putting the DAG in the AG's spot is somehow circumventing the chain of succession and it's "not fair".

Of course they'll say that.

Fuck 'em.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Id82 on February 11, 2019, 03:52:33 pm
So the National Republican Congressional Committee wants to flip 55 democrat house seats in 2020 using a message of Socialism vs Freedom.
Think this message is going to work come next year especially if Donald Trump still remains unpopular.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 11, 2019, 05:07:28 pm
What do you mean remains?  Have you seen how many people figured out that the Tax Scam bill from last year fucked them over?

Ironbite-they'll be lucky to hold on to the Senate.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on February 12, 2019, 07:13:20 pm
So the National Republican Congressional Committee wants to flip 55 democrat house seats in 2020 using a message of Socialism vs Freedom.

The freedom to get fucked by corporations, that is.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 12, 2019, 07:16:54 pm
So the National Republican Congressional Committee wants to flip 55 democrat house seats in 2020 using a message of Socialism vs Freedom.

The freedom to get fucked by corporations, that is.

Quote from: Clement Attlee
It was in fact freedom for the rich and slavery for the poor.

Quote from: Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
This country has socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the poor.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on February 16, 2019, 09:23:46 pm
Controversial opinion time, but socialism IS freedom and without the former we have very little of the latter.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 16, 2019, 10:07:56 pm
Controversial opinion time, but socialism IS freedom and without the former we have very little of the latter.

Depends on what sectors you apply socialism in. I sure as hell don't want the government making cars, or publishing books. I don't mind regulation around those things (safety standards, obscene material), but I don't want the government being the body actually doing the building and publishing. The profit motive, once properly regulated, works to serve the interests of the public in those cases.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 16, 2019, 11:46:42 pm

Depends on what sectors you apply socialism in. I sure as hell don't want the government making cars, or publishing books. I don't mind regulation around those things (safety standards, obscene material), but I don't want the government being the body actually doing the building and publishing. The profit motive, once properly regulated, works to serve the interests of the public in those cases.


Government control != Socialism

Socialism means the workers control the means of production and the commons are not privately owned. More authoritarian interpretations do result in government taking the place of capitalist owners and controlling the means of production but that's not the whole picture. The most socialist actors in the current economic system are actually co-ops where the workers directly decide what happens to the fruits of their labor. This is why the agenda of current Labor leadership in UK is to support and create more of them.

Originally the end goal Communism was pretty much the opposite: making government unnecessary and it dying away as an institution. The later interpretations became more authoritarian and are in an important way indistinguishable from the capitalist system. If a worker has no say to how the end product of their labor is used it doesn't really matter if the one deciding that is a private citizen or a government.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 17, 2019, 01:25:42 am
Well, I mean, I would describe myself as mostly a social democrat. If you just want to clock in and out every day for a wage from your boss, that's cool. I'll make sure your wage is enough to live on and that your workplace is safe and leave you to it.

EDIT: That is, I'm not post-capitalist.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 17, 2019, 02:46:35 am
Well, I mean, I would describe myself as mostly a social democrat. If you just want to clock in and out every day for a wage from your boss, that's cool. I'll make sure your wage is enough to live on and that your workplace is safe and leave you to it.

EDIT: That is, I'm not post-capitalist.

That's fine. You just implied socialism equals government control when that's not how actual socialists define it. From an ideological perspective socialism does call for more freedom than social democracy since there is an authoritarian aspect in the capitalist ownership structure. The question of practicality is more debatable but that was not what you argued in your response.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on February 17, 2019, 04:52:37 am
One day, hopefully in my lifetime, we'll advance to social democrats and pass more new deal type stuff, and hopefully some time after that even if I'm long gone we can realize post-capitalism. I don't expect everything to change all that fast.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 17, 2019, 05:45:10 am
Well, I mean, I would describe myself as mostly a social democrat. If you just want to clock in and out every day for a wage from your boss, that's cool. I'll make sure your wage is enough to live on and that your workplace is safe and leave you to it.

EDIT: That is, I'm not post-capitalist.

That's fine. You just implied socialism equals government control when that's not how actual socialists define it. From an ideological perspective socialism does call for more freedom than social democracy since there is an authoritarian aspect in the capitalist ownership structure. The question of practicality is more debatable but that was not what you argued in your response.

Yes and no, perhaps. I don't like the idea of requiring that workers have a voice in how their companies are run, because there are people who just don't give a shit about that, and they should be free to work in the environment that best suits them, with that workplace subject to such regulation as is necessary to ensure fair wages and a safe environment.

I'm not post-capitalist because I don't think capitalism is inherently bad. I think there are many, many flaws in how it's been implemented, some that are perhaps inherent to it, but I think that capitalism works well when the profit motive is properly regulated so that the actions that maximise profit are also those which maximise value to the public.

https://reason.com/blog/2015/08/28/friday-av-club-what-political-advertisin

Quote from: Wendell Willkie
I would like very much to talk to everybody in this country personally about the issues of this campaign, but you understand that the size of the country and the time I have to devote to this campaign make that impossible. But I do take this method of presenting to you my views on some of the fundamental issues of this campaign on which my convictions are very strong and very clear.

Because I am a businessman, of which, incidentally, I am very proud, and was formerly connected with a large company, the doctrinaires of the opposition have attempted to picture me as an opponent of liberalism. But I was a liberal before many of those men heard the word, and I fought for the reforms of the elder LaFollette and Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson before another Roosevelt adopted and distorted the word 'liberal'.

I believe that the forces of free enterprise must be regulated. I am opposed to business monopolies. I believe in the right of collective bargaining by labor without any interference and full protection of that obvious right. I believe in minimum standards for wages and maximum standards for hours, and I believe that such standards should constantly improve. I am in favor of the regulation of interstate utilities, of banking, of the security markets.

I believe in federal pensions, in adequate old age benefits, and in unemployment allowances. I believe that the federal government owes a duty to adjust the position of the farmer with that of the manufacturer. If this cannot be done by parity prices, then some other method must be found without too much regimentation of the farmers' affairs.

I believe in the encouragement of co-operative buying and selling, and in the full extension of rural electrification, and I believe that the federal government owes a very strong obligation to preserve our natural resources.

But I do not base my claim to liberalism solely on my support and advocacy of such reforms. American liberalism does not consist merely in reforming things. It consists primarily in making things.

We must substitute for the philosophy of distributed scarcity the philosophy of unlimited productivity. I stand for the restoration of full production and re-employment in American private enterprise.

The present administration has spent sixty billion dollars. The New Deal stands for doing what has to be done by spending as much money as possible. I propose to do it by spending as little money as possible. This is one issue in this campaign that I intend to make crystal clear before the conclusion of the campaign so that everybody in this country may understand the tremendous waste of their resources and money that have taken place in the last seven and a half years.

Quote from: Clement Attlee
The Prime Minister made much play last night with the rights of the individual and the dangers of people being ordered about by officials. I entirely agree that people should have the greatest freedom compatible with the freedom of others. There was a time when employers were free to work little children for sixteen hours a day. I remember when employers were free to employ sweated women workers on finishing trousers at a penny halfpenny a pair. There was a time when people were free to neglect sanitation so that thousands died of preventable diseases. For years every attempt to remedy these crying evils was blocked by the same plea of freedom for the individual. It was in fact freedom for the rich and slavery for the poor. Make no mistake, it has only been through the power of the State, given to it by Parliament, that the general public has been protected against the greed of ruthless profit-makers and property owners. The Conservative Party remains as always a class Party. In twenty-three years in the House of Commons, I cannot recall more than half a dozen from the ranks of the wage earners. It represents today, as in the past, the forces of property and privilege. The Labour Party is, in fact, the one Party which most nearly reflects in its representation and composition all the main streams which flow into the great river of our national life.

EDIT: And, for good measure, potholer54's breakdown of how to address climate change starting from basic conservative principles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D99qI42KGB0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fV6eeckxTs
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 17, 2019, 07:39:05 am

Yes and no, perhaps. I don't like the idea of requiring that workers have a voice in how their companies are run, because there are people who just don't give a shit about that, and they should be free to work in the environment that best suits them, with that workplace subject to such regulation as is necessary to ensure fair wages and a safe environment.

I don't think anyone is promoting forcing people to take any more responsibility than they want to. Think about how representative democracy is set up as a political system: you can be as politically active as you want or just go along with what the others decide. Capitalism is the system where there is no real choice given for the workers; social democracy gives some indirect control to them when it works properly through regulations set by the elected officials.

The problem with the social democratic system is from the workers' point of view that the capitalist class has the resources to influence and corrupt the political system to their benefit. This is what has been happening in Finland and elsewhere in Europe since the '90s. The Social Democrats went along with privatizing government owned property and dismantling social democratic structures. Yes, there are institutions that have difficulties in changing with the times but the political pressure has been in the direction of privatizing as much as possible instead of investing public resources on reforming them.

Now we are in a situation where the fight is how to regulate the private actors to make them deliver what they have promised while the economic right that has grown stronger with each compromise is fighting back on every regulation. You want to change regulations to add more nurses to the nursing homes where people are dying due to lack of care? No way, that would restrict their freedom to provide the best service they can.

Edit:

This is a bit of a tangent but I want to clarify I don't think the debate about whether the regulations require 0,6 or 0,7 nurses / client makes a big difference in practice, it just gives the politicians an opportunity to grandstand. A system where the single minded profit seeking of a typical corporation is kept in control by stiff and bureaucratic rules brings out the worst from both private and public sector actors. There are privately owned nursing homes that work well, the worst actors are the big health care companies where the cost savings are enforced by people who have no contact to the communities that the nursing home serve. On the other hand, it's easy for a bureaucrat (who has constant pressure to decrease costs) to move people to a nursing home without caring about their capacity since they are not really his/her responsibility anymore there.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: The_Queen on February 19, 2019, 11:52:43 am
Bernie’s running...

It starts.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 19, 2019, 12:10:14 pm
Bernie’s running...

It starts.

Unless the field narrows to two candidates very quickly (whoever those candidates are) I predict a contested convention.

And, should anyone be perceived to be denied the nomination because of later-ballot superdelegate votes despite having more pledged delegates, particularly if lower candidates ask their pledged delegates to support that candidate, a shit-ton of moaning about "subversion of democracy". (Disclaimer: I may be among those moaning.)
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Id82 on February 19, 2019, 02:33:01 pm
There's like ten candidates with possibly more running for the Democratic Nomination, and none of them are honestly exciting enough to defeat Trump. Trump is running out of the gate with a message that the Democrats are socialists that want to take all of your money, he's going to point to Venezuela and say that's what the Democrats want our country to become, he's going to label them as baby killers and people who want open boarders to allow every dark skinned person into our country with free reign to do what ever they want and drugs. Were going to hear this shit so much ad nauseam over the next two years that its going to scare enough fence sitters to vote Trump back into office.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: KingOfRhye on February 19, 2019, 02:55:51 pm
Bernie’s running...

It starts.

In the words of Jim Ross, "business is about to pick up."
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 19, 2019, 03:55:37 pm
Yeah if you're Trump.

Ironbite-look to see who he's most eager to face in a General Election and run as far away from that candidate as you can.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Askold on February 19, 2019, 04:04:36 pm
The way I see it, Bernie's just too old. Not saying that Clinton or Trump are young either, but when voting for him his vice-presidential choice is looking very important.

More than that, seeing how things went the last time, the most he can do is divide the Democrats for an easier Trump/Republican victory. There are other ways to get his politics into mainstream than running for president. Heck, just him choosing another candidate to support would have not only helped his apparent agenda but the party as well.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 19, 2019, 05:38:05 pm
There's like ten candidates with possibly more running for the Democratic Nomination, and none of them are honestly exciting enough to defeat Trump. Trump is running out of the gate with a message that the Democrats are socialists that want to take all of your money, he's going to point to Venezuela and say that's what the Democrats want our country to become, he's going to label them as baby killers and people who want open boarders to allow every dark skinned person into our country with free reign to do what ever they want and drugs. Were going to hear this shit so much ad nauseam over the next two years that its going to scare enough fence sitters to vote Trump back into office.

Except that those policies--the ones actually being proposed, not the strawmen that will be attacked--are quite popular. And the counterpoint is "Norway, Sweden, Denmark".

But we'll see. It's going to be interesting no matter what.

EDIT: http://fortune.com/2019/02/20/bernie-sanders-fundraising-money-raised/

Meanwhile, Sen. Harris' launch a month or so ago saw her first-day fundraising numbers roughly match Sen. Sanders' first-day fundraising from 2015--around $1,500,000. Sen. Harris had about 38,000 individual donors.

Sen. Sanders' first-day fundraising this time around almost quadrupled that, with almost six times as many donors. (The average donation was around that famous $27 figure.)

Money isn't everything in politics, but it sure as hell helps, and it is a sign of excitement when so many people are donating to a candidate on their campaign's first day. (A good chunk of it is recurring donations, to boot.)

We'll see how this holds up over the next year, but Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina are going to be pretty interesting. (And don't forget that California has moved back to Super Tuesday this time, which makes things very interesting if the field quickly narrows to Sanders-Harris.)
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on February 22, 2019, 02:49:51 am
One of my favorite pastimes is scrolling through twitter to see all the HillDawgs and other forms of neoliberal centrists make up conspiracies about Bernie being a Russian puppet (complete with all the tinges of hopefully unintentional anti-semitism that such an accusation against a Jewish man entails) and complaining about Bernie Bros dividing the party unironically and completely lacking in any self awareness.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 22, 2019, 05:28:10 am
https://www.salon.com/2008/04/14/obama_supporters/ -- Obama Boys, the original Bernie Bros
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jun/07/hillaryclinton.barackobama -- Remember the PUMAs?
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 22, 2019, 08:28:58 am
One of my favorite pastimes is scrolling through twitter to see all the HillDawgs and other forms of neoliberal centrists make up conspiracies about Bernie being a Russian puppet (complete with all the tinges of hopefully unintentional anti-semitism that such an accusation against a Jewish man entails) and complaining about Bernie Bros dividing the party unironically and completely lacking in any self awareness.

I do question how a 70 year old man was able to get such a huge following on the internet though.

Ironbite-not that his ideas aren't sound mind I just question that.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: SCarpelan on February 22, 2019, 09:15:53 am
One of my favorite pastimes is scrolling through twitter to see all the HillDawgs and other forms of neoliberal centrists make up conspiracies about Bernie being a Russian puppet (complete with all the tinges of hopefully unintentional anti-semitism that such an accusation against a Jewish man entails) and complaining about Bernie Bros dividing the party unironically and completely lacking in any self awareness.

I do question how a 70 year old man was able to get such a huge following on the internet though.

Ironbite-not that his ideas aren't sound mind I just question that.

He filled an ideological void to the left of the mainstream American politics and has an image of a political outsider. Then social media and internet in general took that and ramped it up to eleven building a personality cult with his supporters projecting to him their hopes and his detractors their fears and bitterness.

Sanders's team took notice and has made sure he has a strong online presence so the buzz from the previous election has been kept alive. So, the following is not just because of him, it's because millennials whom he inspires have a strong presence online and he and his team have good political instincts that allow them to take advantage of it.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 26, 2019, 11:13:15 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EzPkqJqp9M

Each member of Congress has to decide how much staff they hire and what sort of remuneration (if any) said staff will be paid.

Breaking with the usual practice, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez decided that her entry-level staff would all be paid a living wage--around $52,000 (DC-area costs of living being higher than many other places). However, due to budget constraints, this means that she can only afford to pay her chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, around $80,000.

The general going salary for a chief of staff for a member of the House is around $150,000.

One assumes that, if Mr. Chakrabarti were miffed about being paid half as much as his counterparts, he would quit. Last I heard, he hasn't.

I should note that Mr. Chakrabarti worked on Sen. Sanders' 2015-16 Presidential campaign, and later helped co-found and run Justice Democrats, the group that discovered and recruited Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, for free.

To my knowledge, no actual laws are being broken here.

And FOX News thinks it's an outrage that Mr. Chakrabarti is willing to work as a Congressional chief of staff for $80,000 and that entry-level staff would get $52,000--"socialism and communism" according to one host.

How about capitalism: Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and Mr. Chakrabarti have agreed upon a salary each considers fair for him to receive as her chief of staff (I imagine this is not the only position available to him), and meanwhile she can offer prospective entry-level staffers a substantially higher salary than they would get with pretty much anyone else in Congress, thus likely providing her a much more talented, motivated staff than anyone else in Congress.

I have to wonder if they secretly think she'd be easy to beat in a higher-level campaign (though I doubt she'd lose in New York if she ran for Senate, but then it'd take a lot for any Democrat to lose in New York these days--Anthony Weiner probably could've--so probably President) and are making stupid attacks against her on purpose to prop her up.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: ironbite on February 27, 2019, 03:44:48 pm
Because they have absolutely no idea how to handle her.  She's a typical New Yorker who puts herself out there and backs up everything she's saying.  They can't handle that.  She's, for want of a better term, an honest politician and after 40 years of politicians lying their asses off, it breaks their little minds.

Ironbite-fun to watch though.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on February 27, 2019, 06:53:26 pm
Because they have absolutely no idea how to handle her.  She's a typical New Yorker who puts herself out there and backs up everything she's saying.  They can't handle that.  She's, for want of a better term, an honest politician and after 40 years of politicians lying their asses off, it breaks their little minds.

Ironbite-fun to watch though.

Thing is, the best way to handle her is to deny her attention. When they attack her they're just exposing more people to what she's doing and her ideas and giving them oxygen.

The same, honestly, goes for CNN anchors who bring her own to ask her stupid questions about how to pay for her proposals.

But she gets ratings.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on March 19, 2019, 06:05:07 pm
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/18/18271222/beto-orourke-fundraising-haul-2020-sanders

Beto O'Rourke has broken Bernie Sanders' first-day fundraising record.

However, his campaign has declined to release the number of individual donors, or the average donation.

Which could prove problematic...

https://theintercept.com/2018/12/27/dnc-primary-grassroots-fundraising/

Since if he can't hit 1% poll support (and with so many people gunning for the nomination, that's a tall order for any candidate), he needs 65,000 individual donors to get on the stage for the Democratic primary debates.

Personally I hope he drops and challenges Sen. Cornyn instead--if there's enough of a wave, he could win this time around.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Id82 on March 19, 2019, 06:47:38 pm
I think Beto is running too prematurely. He's young and has state level experience, but if he could gang some more experience being a senator or governor for like ten years I think it would increase his chances.

Biden and Bernie have the opposite problem being in their late seventies. The democrats really need a younger more progressive candidate. Harris or Booker might be good, but they might be too corporate.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Eiki-mun on March 19, 2019, 10:16:37 pm
I think Beto is running too prematurely. He's young and has state level experience, but if he could gang some more experience being a senator or governor for like ten years I think it would increase his chances.

Biden and Bernie have the opposite problem being in their late seventies. The democrats really need a younger more progressive candidate. Harris or Booker might be good, but they might be too corporate.

Coming from Texas, Beto's never going to be anything more than a House rep. He tried his level best to climb the hill to Senator and didn't make it (though he came damn close - 14 points above expectations!!). He's definitely not going to make it to Governor. I for one think this is his best possible chance, and I for one hope he kills it in floor debates and gets his shot at the Presidency. I think he'd be an easy win against Trump (if he can get within 2 points in Texas, imagine what he can do in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Nevada!!) and that he'd be a capable, progressive and rational leader to boot.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on March 20, 2019, 12:41:12 am
I think Beto is running too prematurely. He's young and has state level experience, but if he could gang some more experience being a senator or governor for like ten years I think it would increase his chances.

Biden and Bernie have the opposite problem being in their late seventies. The democrats really need a younger more progressive candidate. Harris or Booker might be good, but they might be too corporate.

Coming from Texas, Beto's never going to be anything more than a House rep. He tried his level best to climb the hill to Senator and didn't make it (though he came damn close - 14 points above expectations!!). He's definitely not going to make it to Governor. I for one think this is his best possible chance, and I for one hope he kills it in floor debates and gets his shot at the Presidency. I think he'd be an easy win against Trump (if he can get within 2 points in Texas, imagine what he can do in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Nevada!!) and that he'd be a capable, progressive and rational leader to boot.

Capable and rational, yes. (Granted that can be said of just about anyone on the Democratic side--and, I'd venture to add, some on the Republican side, too, even if I might disagree with their policies.) Progressive? Not when he votes with Republicans pretty often (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/20/beto-orourke-congressional-votes-analysis-capital-and-main) (to do stuff like gut the CFPB and deregulate banking), not when Third Way likes him (https://twitter.com/thirdwaytweet/status/1052922247646720002?lang=en), and not when he was in the New Democrat Coalition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrat_Coalition).

That he isn't disclosing how many donors he had is problematic--that six-million-plus he raised could have come from as little as 2300 donors all giving the maximum, and he was disavowed (https://grist.org/article/beto-orourke-might-have-an-oil-money-problem/) by the "no fossil fuel money" pledge group for taking big donations from oil executives. Something tells me that if he had broken the 65,000 individual donors necessary (absent 1% poll support) for debate access with his first-day fundraising, he'd be trumpeting that from the rooftops. (Sen. Harris only made it about three-fifths of the way there on her first-day fundraising and she made the number public.)

But I'm hesitant to speculate on how the Democratic field will shake out until Biden announces one way or the other.

I'm not saying he couldn't win a general Presidential election, but I think he'd have a better chance of riding the coattails of whoever does win the Democratic nomination to knock off Cornyn than he would of winning said nomination.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on March 20, 2019, 05:46:35 am
Beto seems like a nice guy and would be decent at any political job, but I really don't like that he won't disclose the donor count because that seems to indicate the establishment's buying him out and possibly wanting to crown him the new frontrunner, I don't want him to end up like another Clinton.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on March 20, 2019, 06:24:27 am
Beto seems like a nice guy and would be decent at any political job, but I really don't like that he won't disclose the donor count because that seems to indicate the establishment's buying him out and possibly wanting to crown him the new frontrunner, I don't want him to end up like another Clinton.

I agree, but keep in mind: he was voting to gut the CFPB and deregulate banking, and in the New Democrat Coalition, well before he gave any sign of Presidential aspirations. One hopes that he's stuck to his "no corporate PAC money" pledge (which he made well before it was clear that anyone with 2020 aspirations on the Democratic side would have to do that) but that still leaves room for a lot of ~$2500 donations.

EDIT: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/434918-orourke-raised-61-million-from-over-128000-donors-on-campaigns-first-day

O'Rourke has released more details of his first-day donations, claiming to have over 128,000 unique contributions, for an average donation of around $48. (For some reason, he's saying "unique" contributions where everyone else is saying "individual" contributions, but I don't read anything into that; it's just a difference in terminology.) At any rate, that gets him into the primary debates.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on March 23, 2019, 01:34:51 am
Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke, Harris, Buttigieg, Warren, Booker, CloudBootJar, Hickenlooper, Castro, and Jay Inslee all have 1% or higher in polling. At the moment they all qualify. Gillibrand and Yang have hovered around and surpassed 1% in a few polls.

Have there been any of those official qualifying polls yet? First debates coming up in June and I want to know what the field will look like for it. I want Inslee in the debates so he can talk about our state leading on the Climate Change issue and I want Yang in to bring up debate about his pet issue of UBI.

Warren, O'Rourke, Sanders, Harris, Biden (is he running officially yet? what's the hold up?) and Booker I'd say are all solid locks to get on the debate stage.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on March 23, 2019, 06:52:35 am
I think Biden's trying to figure out whether entering will be a good thing or a bad thing for his side of the current ideological divide in the Democratic Party. He's polling very well now, but he has a history of underperforming his poll numbers, so donors might be leery of backing him. (Whether they stick with O'Rourke, where they seem to be right now, or go to someone like Harris is another matter.)

As for polls, I don't know... and if Gabbard isn't near either threshold, I wonder if she'll call it quits soon.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: dpareja on May 02, 2019, 06:43:59 am
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/wall-street-democrats-2020-candidates.html

Wall Street Democratic donors, apparently, have very little idea of what to do to keep all of Sanders, Warren, and Trump out of the White House after January 19, 2021.

And some of them have decided that their paycheques are more important than their social values (ie they're saying "fuck it" and backing Trump).
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on May 03, 2019, 12:38:50 am
https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dick-cheney-comments-resurface-amid-2020-campaign-2019-5?r=US&IR=T

God damn it Joe.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: Kanzenkankaku on May 03, 2019, 12:39:32 am
Biden is such a dipshit it's frustrating to me that some hack like him is a frontrunner.
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: DarkPhoenix on May 04, 2019, 01:20:09 am
Biden is such a dipshit it's frustrating to me that some hack like him is a frontrunner.

Only two groups that really seem to like Joe: people who aren't really paying attention and only know Joe as "Obama's VP", and assume a Biden Presidency will be Obama term 3, and centrists who think ideas like health care and education are too communist, but are afraid of the current Republican Party.

The Dems should really be hoping Joe doesn't end up winning, because it's going to be hard to run a non-hypocritical campaign against Trump with him as the front guy...
Title: Re: What are your future presidential predictions?
Post by: niam2023 on May 04, 2019, 01:21:33 am
Old people.

They ALWAYS wanna have a go at telling the newer generations how to live according to their outdated customs and traditions.