FSTDT Forums
Community => Politics and Government => Topic started by: Fpqxz on May 10, 2012, 04:18:03 pm
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BBC News Asia: China bangs the war drum over South China Sea (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-18016901)
The People's Republic of China is continuing its imperialistic saber-rattling against the Philippines, over a bunch of islands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal) in the South China Sea.
The odd thing here is that the Philippine navy consists of just one proper ship and that is an ancient US Coast Guard cutter which is hardly a match for China's navy, as this online commentary by "The Comparativist" makes clear (http://comparativist.wordpress.com/2012/05/09/lacking-danger-in-the-south-china-sea/).
The Comparativist writes: "I think this is happening because the Philippines is so weak. The Chinese government can beat the war drums all they want, and as loud as they want, and no war is going to happen. It's akin to bullying someone in a wheelchair that you know can't punch back."
Well, I suppose it's unfair to blame China for doing what the USA and European powers have been doing for centuries--building up their economies, and then intimidating everyone around them. We should have seen this coming. The problem is, if China actually does attack the Philippines, the USA and probably also Australia will step in to defend them, which would be a really nasty war.
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Next week's cause for panic will be the incursions of the Irish Navy into Swiss waters.
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The Spratlys; also claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan (!), Malaysia, Brunei. Unsurprisingly, they have oil. There has already a war over the islands (between 'Nam and China, in '78, started by China, finishing in a draw).
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Maybe China is trying to buy time? Any war between the US and China would hurt both of them, but at this point China will lose.
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I think I read this in a Tom Clancy novel. No, seriously: SSN, by Tom Clancy. It's about the Chinese taking over the Spratlys, only for one US submarine to chew their navy up and spit it out.
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Next week's cause for panic will be the incursions of the Irish Navy into Swiss waters.
Also, Brazil's going to war with Madagascar.
... yeah I read the thread title and went WTF?
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I'm kinda curious if they aren't still a bit sour for not winning their territorial dispute with Vietnam.
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Nothing will come of this. This Philippines are allied with the US, there's no way the Chinese are stupid enough to start an offensive war when the US is on the other side. They simply wouldn't stand a chance.
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Oh they'd probably threaten economic repercussions but that'd fuck them over too.
Ironbite-they're kinda in a lose lose here.
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Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?
China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.
China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.
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Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?
China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.
China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.
Now just wait a minute. Repressing dissidents and political activists in the homeland doesn't translate to the army rapemurdering everybody on sight. Especially if the whole world would be watching.
Not to mention that as several people pointed out already, a full-out war with the Phillippines has a certain likelihood to draw in the US and others, so China won't risk that for just some island.
The Philippines are no threat to the Chinese navy, so for China it's saber-rattling with low risk for the situation to get out of control.
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China is a land power, it's navy is almost non-existent (compared to the American and even Russian navies), it cannot reach American soil while America has access to most (all?) of China's centre's of power. A million soldiers helps, but what point is there if their technology is outdated?
Also, China is undergoing huge levels of internal industrial unrest. It is possible that if China went to war, the stress could spark widespread revolt.
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Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?
China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.
China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.
Fat load of good those soldiers will do against the Americans. A relatively tiny and outdated air force and navy on China's part will mean those million soldiers would be doomed as soon as they leave the harbour. When fighting over a few islands, air and naval superiority are rather important.
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Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?
China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.
China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.
I pointed out before that China failed with Vietnam, so numbers doesn't necessarily mean strength. And as everyone else pointed out, their equipment is largely outdated compared to ours. Furthermore, if they try anything I bet dollars to doughnuts that rebellion would break out in Xinjiang Uyghur and Tibet. And they'd still have border issues with India. They'd be too divided on too many fronts.
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The chances of war between the US and China are about as likely as Bristol Palin scoring a full ride to Harvard. The economies of the US and China are so intimately intertwined that if the connections were to be severed, both nations would tank almost overnight.
This is nothing more than standard Chinese posturing.
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The chances of war between the US and China are about as likely as Bristol Palin scoring a full ride to Harvard. The economies of the US and China are so intimately intertwined that if the connections were to be severed, both nations would tank almost overnight.
This is nothing more than standard Chinese posturing.
While I agree to an extent, regarding that trade between the two countries is so important (and this might help any doves on either side), this still didn't stop WW1 and WW2.
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Am I the only one who is actually kind of worried about this?
China's military is scary, they have over 1 million men under arms. Think about that for a minute. That means that if they deploy their entire military against my country they can completely exterminate the entire population with each soldier only killing 55 people. Sure they might not have all the shiny toys America has, but they can push for a war of attrition and they will win. That many people can grind down any opposition. Add to the fray that china does not exactly have the most sterling human rights records, and to be blunt in any invasion they instigate it would actually be of greater benefit to them to just kill everyone on sight instead of worrying about non combatants. its not like they cant ship a barely noticeable portion of their population to the new country and repopulate it.
China is a powerful nation, and it is getting more and more powerful all the time. Currently political and economic pressure is their weapon of choice. While they can completely obliterate any single country having the whole world going together to fight them would be beyond their power right now.
Yes a million men is a threat in a land war....this war won't be. It'll be sea and air. And in that respect, China's got nothing.
Ironbite-you're getting worked up over nothing.
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If you're anyone but the US or Russia, the Chinese navy is looking increasingly nasty. Australia (which is by far the most powerful navy in the South Seas) recently announced a fairly massive naval build-up. Our first aircraft carrier* arrives this year.
It's something completely new for China to be throwing weight around. Until a decade ago, China had zero influence outside Korea and Indochina. Now they're making inroads on Africa and Pakistan, and Indonesia.
* Technically an amphibious warfare vessel, but it can carry aircraft, dammit!
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It's something completely new for China to be throwing weight around. Until a decade ago, China had zero influence outside Korea and Indochina. Now they're making inroads on Africa and Pakistan, and Indonesia.
This is what I am talking about. It's easy now to say "oh, China can't really do anything to the Philippines or anyone else", but they clearly have imperial aspirations, and are willing to play dirty to advance them.
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Yes, China does have imperial ambitions, but so does everyone. They are only limited by their ability.
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Yes, China does have imperial ambitions, but so does everyone. They are only limited by their ability.
"Everyone imposes his own system as far as his army can reach."
--Joseph Stalin, 1945
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The chances of war between the US and China are about as likely as Bristol Palin scoring a full ride to Harvard. The economies of the US and China are so intimately intertwined that if the connections were to be severed, both nations would tank almost overnight.
This is nothing more than standard Chinese posturing.
While I agree to an extent, regarding that trade between the two countries is so important (and this might help any doves on either side), this still didn't stop WW1 and WW2.
True, but prior to WWI, international trade tended to be primarily raw resources, and the national acquisition by force of those foreign resources was a major factor in the commencement of hostilities. And WWII was really just Round Two of the same war.
The dynamics of international trade were simply different than they are today, when trade tends to consist of mostly manufactured goods rather than raw resources (unless you consider energy resources, and there are plenty of people who advocate a WWI style solution to that today...).
Back then, acquiring territory by force was seen as a means of increasing national wealth and stability by securing control of strategic resources such as coal, iron, etc. As land was seen as the standard of wealth, the more land the better. Today, the measure of national wealth is considered more in terms of manufacturing capacity, money, and control of information/technology. It's just a different economic dynamic. An attempt to gain control of these things by force from another nation would almost certainly result in the destruction of the very thing you desired.
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^^That is actually a very astute observation. Maintaining an empire simply isn't what it used to be. The USA is already finding this out the hard way.
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It's something completely new for China to be throwing weight around.
Actually I'm pretty sure they've been doing that for several thousand years.
Yeah, I know what you meant, but I'm just being pedantic
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China wasn't even a country from ~1912-1949. And it was remarkably weak and defenceless for centuries before, particularly in naval terms (Mahan would not approve).
In 2009, China sent a squadron of modern destroyers to enforce the anti-piracy thing off Somalia. The last time a Chinese vessel left Chinese territorial waters was in about 1500. Now they have bases in Pakistan, and Indonesia- largely to protect their oil transport routes. American-style imperialism doesn't seem to be the way China is going.
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True, but prior to WWI, international trade tended to be primarily raw resources, and the national acquisition by force of those foreign resources was a major factor in the commencement of hostilities. And WWII was really just Round Two of the same war.
The dynamics of international trade were simply different than they are today, when trade tends to consist of mostly manufactured goods rather than raw resources (unless you consider energy resources, and there are plenty of people who advocate a WWI style solution to that today...).
Back then, acquiring territory by force was seen as a means of increasing national wealth and stability by securing control of strategic resources such as coal, iron, etc. As land was seen as the standard of wealth, the more land the better. Today, the measure of national wealth is considered more in terms of manufacturing capacity, money, and control of information/technology. It's just a different economic dynamic. An attempt to gain control of these things by force from another nation would almost certainly result in the destruction of the very thing you desired.
Well, the reason I mentioned WW2 is because some companies in the US (ford being the first that comes to mind) had strong trade links with Germany, yet they still conducted strategic bombing.
Regarding resources, yes land is not the main factor for determining wealth now*, but resources are still important. Australia is living off selling resources to China, Africa is undergoing another land grab because there are large mineral deposits that haven't been tapped and the entire US strategy in the Middle East has been securing its oil supply (though now more of it is coming from Africa).
Even without a fight over resources, there will still be spats over influence and investment rights. China expanding its influence over the Pacific is bad news from America because it could lose its bases in the Philippines, Japan and South Korea, effectively losing control over the entire western Pacific.
* While colonies were the measure for how 'successful' a country was, I doubt it was used as the indicator for economic strength.
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Australia is living off selling resources to China,
A common misconception. Australia actually has a trade deficit.
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Australia is living off selling resources to China,
A common misconception. Australia actually has a trade deficit.
We do have a trade deficit, but the mining boom is the only thing keeping Australia out of a recession.
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Strong domestic demand is preventing Australia from collapsing into recession, hence the huge demand for imported goods.
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Has China ever won a war???
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Has China ever won a war???
2nd Sino-Japanese war comes to mind.