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Author Topic: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins  (Read 37732 times)

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Offline Id82

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #165 on: October 22, 2018, 04:29:35 pm »
The chances of retaking the Senate have been pretty low for the Dems. I'm not too surprised by that, and their chances will be better in 2020, but I don't really forsee them taking the Senate back until 2022 honestly. I just want the dems to take back the house and prevent the Republicans from ruining healthcare and giving more handouts to the wealthy.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #166 on: October 22, 2018, 05:11:16 pm »
The Dems' chances of retaking the Senate are a lot better than they have any right to be. There's a good chance they hold the Republicans to the status quo--which would still be horrific, but better than losing seats.

In 2020, meanwhile, there are quite a few seats that could flip:

Alabama: To R.
Colorado: To D.
Iowa: To D.
Kentucky: To D. (Not because the Democrats should be winning Kentucky, but because Mitch McConnell is ridiculously unpopular.)
Maine: To D. (Probably over anger at Collins' vote for Kavanaugh.)
North Carolina: To D.
Texas: To D. (Yes; it's very possible that it will go Democratic in the Presidential race, which could bring the Senate seat with it.)
West Virginia: To D.

I don't think all of those will flip (in fact, I think the most likely is Alabama), but I'd say that as long as the Democrats can hold the Republicans to no net gain this year (which is very possible) they have a very good chance at retaking the Senate in 2020.
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Offline Id82

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #167 on: October 22, 2018, 06:03:32 pm »
How do you figure Texas will go Blue in the presidential race?
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #168 on: October 22, 2018, 07:25:51 pm »
Quote from: Id82 on October 22, 2018, 06:03:32 pm
How do you figure Texas will go Blue in the presidential race?

Because Texas is already an outlier for Republican states in terms of urbanization.

Romney and Cruz both won Texas by about 16 points in 2012. Cornyn (a two-term incumbent) won by 27 points in 2014 (a Republican wave year, remember). Trump won Texas by about 9 points. 538's forecasted vote shares for Cruz and O'Rourke puts Cruz 5 points up (Classic model and Deluxe model; 5.5 points up in Lite). That's a trajectory that can make Texas into a swing state in 2020.

EDIT: Andrew Gillum on Ron DeSantis:

Quote
My grandmother used to say, a hit dog will holler, and it hollered through this room. Mr. DeSantis has spoken; first of all, he's got neo-Nazis helping him out in this state, he has spoken at racist conferences, he's accepted a contribution and would not return it from someone who referred to the former President of the United States as a "Muslim n-i-g-g-e-r" [ed: Gillum spelled it out], when asked to return that money he said no, he's using that money to now fund negative ads.

Now I'm not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist, I'm simply saying the racists believe he's a racist.

EDIT #2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45xNK1jB6gw

How the Democrats could blow the midterm election--and 2020.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 05:02:56 pm by dpareja »
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Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Id82

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #169 on: November 05, 2018, 09:31:45 pm »
Everyone get out and vote tomorrow.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #170 on: November 05, 2018, 09:49:15 pm »
Quote from: Id82 on November 05, 2018, 09:31:45 pm
Everyone get out and vote tomorrow.

And make sure it wasn't switched to a vote for the other candidate.
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Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline Cloud3514

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #171 on: November 06, 2018, 03:16:47 am »
I voted early and Wisconsin uses paper ballots. So, yeah.
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Offline Askold

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #172 on: November 06, 2018, 03:19:40 pm »
I guess the results will be out sometime when it's night here and I'll come back to see the aftermath on the net and here.
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Offline ironbite

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #173 on: November 06, 2018, 05:09:41 pm »
I have done my civic duty.

Ironbite-now to sit back and wait.
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Offline Id82

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #174 on: November 06, 2018, 09:00:33 pm »
I'm preparing to get disappointed again.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #175 on: November 06, 2018, 09:18:38 pm »
Quote from: Id82 on November 06, 2018, 09:00:33 pm
I'm preparing to get disappointed again.

I said it before: the one thing the Democrats are good at is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.

Offline niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #176 on: November 06, 2018, 09:47:36 pm »
Ah FQA, the optimistic friend of FSTDT.
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Offline Eiki-mun

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #177 on: November 06, 2018, 11:17:06 pm »
Democrats take the House - that's enough process that I'm gonna call that a victory.
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Offline niam2023

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #178 on: November 06, 2018, 11:29:20 pm »
I am betting we'll still get "Democrats are skilled at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" posts for not winning enough.
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Offline dpareja

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Re: The lead-up to the 2018 midterms begins
« Reply #179 on: November 07, 2018, 12:25:23 am »
Between Donnelly, Heitkamp, and McCaskill, they pretty much lost the Senate for 2020.

EDIT: And Nelson.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 12:42:42 am by dpareja »
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Quote from: Jordan Duram
It doesn't concern you, Sister, that kind of absolutist view of the universe? Right and wrong determined solely by a single all-knowing, all powerful being whose judgment cannot be questioned and in whose name the most horrendous acts can be sanctioned without appeal?

Quote from: Supreme Court of Canada
Being required by someone else’s religious beliefs to behave contrary to one’s sexual identity is degrading and disrespectful.
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